Narre Warren North: $1.75m median house price, plus flood, zoning and school-zone checks
Narre Warren North median house price: $1,755,000 in the Jan–Mar 2026 quarter, from 16 sales (Valuer-General Victoria). Median rent: $410 a week (ABS Census 2021, older than the price figures). Postcode 3804.
What stands out: Part of Narre Warren North is under a Public Acquisition Overlay (land reserved for a future public work) (Vicmap Planning); its house median is higher than 86% of the 423 Greater Melbourne suburbs with a reliable house median (Valuer-General Victoria).
Page updated · market data to Mar 2026
- Zoning: mostly Green Wedge A zone (GWAZ4), 41% of the land
- Planning change: a new overlay since 2017, latest in 2019 (details)
- School zones: parts of Narre Warren North are zoned for Fountain Gate Primary School and Harkaway Primary School (+6 more) (primary); Berwick Secondary College and Fountain Gate Secondary College (+3 more) (secondary)
- Getting there: 47 min to Dandenong by public transport (modelled)
- House median
- $1,755,000
- Mar qtr 2026
- Higher than 86% of the 423 Greater Melbourne suburbs with a reliable house median · 16 sales in the quarter
- Valuer-General Victoria
- Median rent
- $410/wk
- Census 2021 (older)
- Census 2021 median, all rented homes
- Four years older than the price figures; not directly comparable.
- ABS Census 2021
- Gross yield
- 1.2%
- 2021 rent / Mar qtr 2026 price
- Indicative only.
- Calculated by Delora from the two figures above
- Planning risk
- Flood 7% LowBushfire 6% LowHeritage 1% Very low
- share of suburb land area
- 3 suburb-specific overlays to check
- Vicmap Planning
- Getting around
- 5.1 km to nearest station
- 47 min to Dandenong by public transport (modelled)
- 8 zoned primary, 5 secondary schools
- PTV timetable data · Delora commute model · Victorian Department of Education school zones
Check an address in Narre Warren NorthCompare with another suburb
Narre Warren North is an established suburb with an older, more settled population — median age 42, among the most socio-economically advantaged areas in the state on the ABS's SEIFA index. Housing here is overwhelmingly standalone houses. The area is still light on cafés and retail strips, though well served by schools. It's some distance from the CBD, with no train or tram service recorded — day-to-day travel here generally means driving.
Ready to look at a specific property here? See the due diligence hub for what to verify before you sign.
Scope: Victoria, Australia. Suburb data here is Victorian (state valuer, rental, planning and school records); Greater Melbourne comparison group.
In this profile
- Planning and riskZones, overlays, flood and bushfire, and what is planned nearby, with an address check.
- Prices and rentsMedian prices and rents, how they have moved, and sales volume.
- SchoolsThe government school zones that cover the suburb.
- Living hereTransport, commute times, who lives here and the suburbs nearby.
- Before you buyThe checks every purchase needs, common questions and guides.
Is Narre Warren North in a flood, bushfire or heritage area?
Narre Warren North has relatively light heritage-overlay coverage (about 1%), though it can still apply to individual parcels. Parts of the suburb (about 7%) sit under flood-related overlays. A Bushfire Management Overlay affects about 6% of the area.
Suburb-wide shares of the land, not a check of any one address.
Flood-related overlays can add building rules and raise insurance cost.
Share of the suburb. Source: Vicmap Planning · Verify this address
If it applies it adds bushfire construction requirements (a BAL rating) and cost.
Share of the suburb. Source: Vicmap Planning · Verify this address
In a designated bushfire prone area a minimum construction standard applies to new homes, based on the bushfire attack level (BAL). (Department of Transport and Planning (Victoria), verified 22 Oct 2026) So building or rebuilding there means working out the home’s BAL and pricing in what meeting it costs.
Share of the suburb. Source: Designated Bushfire Prone Area (DataVic) · Verify this address
Changes to the outside of a building, and demolition, need council approval. 15 named overlay areas (HO119, HO56, HO122 +12 more) — oldest gazetted 1999.
Share of the suburb. Source: Vicmap Planning · Verify this address
Worth checking in Narre Warren North
Public Acquisition Overlay
Part of Narre Warren North is reserved for a future public work (e.g. a road or rail project) under a Public Acquisition Overlay — land it covers can be compulsorily acquired by the authority. Check whether this specific property is affected before you commit.
Check for a flood overlay
Parts of Narre Warren North (~7%) sit under flood-related overlays. Confirm whether this address is affected.
Bushfire Management Overlay
A Bushfire Management Overlay affects ~6% of Narre Warren North. If it applies, it drives bushfire construction requirements (BAL rating) and cost.
Zoning mix and building controls
Land use across the suburb (planning zones)
- Zoning
- Rural / Green
- mostly Green Wedge A Zone – Schedule 4 (GWAZ4) · 41% of the suburb
Planning overlays that can affect building, renovating or removing vegetation somewhere in Narre Warren North — confirm whether any apply to the specific address.
- Significant Landscape Overlay — controls to protect the area’s landscape character
- Environmental Significance Overlay — environmental values that constrain development
Planning changes in Narre Warren North: 1 recorded since 2017
Planning controls on land in Narre Warren North have changed since 2017. Each row below is one gazetted amendment — a batch of parcels changed together in the same notice, not a single lot — the kind of thing that moves land value and that portals don’t show.
Source: Vicmap Planning Scheme History (2017–present); parcel-level zone & overlay changes grouped by suburb, zone transition and gazettal batch. A suburb-level record — confirm the specific parcel. See how Melbourne’s zoning changed over the decade →
- Suburb
- Heritage
- Flood
- Bushfire
Layers on this map, as a table
| Layer | Share of suburb | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Suburb boundary | The whole suburb | ABS SAL 2021 |
| Heritage overlay | 1% | Vicmap Planning |
| Flood overlay | 7% | Vicmap Planning |
| Bushfire overlay | 6% | Vicmap Planning |
Overlay colours reflect how much of the suburb an overlay covers — green under ~8%, amber ~8–20%, red above 20%. Public-acquisition, contamination (EAO) and floodway overlays are listed above under "Worth checking" wherever they apply, because even a small area can include a specific property. Source: Vicmap Planning. What do these terms mean? · How to verify planning controls for an address
What do homes cost in Narre Warren North?
Market pulse: is Narre Warren North busier or quieter than a year ago?
VGV sales to Mar 2026 · ABS approvals to Aug 2026
| Measure | Change | What it's based on |
|---|---|---|
| House prices | Not measured | Fewer than 20 sales in the Jan–Mar 2026 quarter or the same quarter a year earlier: too few to compare. |
| Houses sold | +8.2% · about the same | 53 houses sold in the four quarters to Mar 2026, against 49 in the four quarters before. |
| New homes approved (council) | −5.1% · about the same | 3,412 dwellings approved across the council Sep 2025 to Aug 2026, against 3,595 in the 12 months before. |
What sales volume tells you → Reading rental demand →
Over 5 years the calendar-year median house price went from $1,150,000 (2020) to $1,560,000 (2025), +35.7% or about +6.3% a year.
Checking an asking price in Narre Warren North
A suburb median is the middle sale, not the value of any one home.
- Ask the agent for the Property Price Statement (a listing from before the change may still carry a Statement of Information (Consumer Affairs Victoria, verified 27 Sep 2026)). It gives an indicative price and the three most comparable sales (Consumer Affairs Victoria, verified 30 Jul 2026), and since it replaced the Statement of Information in the 2026 underquoting reform it also lists the bedrooms, bathrooms, floor area and land size of each comparable home (Consumer Affairs Victoria, verified 27 Sep 2026).
- Check those sales really are comparable: a similar standard of home, sold within 2 km in the last 6 months in metropolitan Melbourne, or within 5 km in the last 18 months elsewhere (Consumer Affairs Victoria, verified 30 Jul 2026).
- An advertised price is a guide only, and a home selling above it isn't by itself proof of underquoting (Consumer Affairs Victoria, verified 30 Jul 2026).
What open data can't tell you
Auction clearance rates, days on market, the number of homes for sale and how far sellers drop their price are not published as open government data. They come from private listing and data companies under paid licences, so Delora doesn't show them. For a home you're looking at, ask the agent how long it has been listed, whether it was passed in at auction, and what its first price guide was.
How the market pulse is worked out
Prices compare the latest quarterly median with the same quarter a year earlier, using only quarters with at least 20 sales and no thin-market flag from the Valuer-General. A direction is called only when the quarter before agrees: both changes at least +3% is rising, both at most −3% is falling, both within 3% is about the same, anything else is mixed. Sales compare the latest four quarters with the four before (a change of 10% or more counts as more or fewer). Sales are counted when they settle (Valuer-General Victoria / Land Use Victoria, verified 29 Jul 2026), so these figures trail contracts signed in the last few months.
Rents are the Rental Report's moving-annual median for all homes, from new lettings only (Homes Victoria / Department of Families, Fairness and Housing, verified 29 Jul 2026), compared with the same quarter a year earlier (3% band); new leases use a 10% band. Dwelling approvals are the ABS count for the whole council, not this suburb; an approval is the permit to start building, not a finished home (Australian Bureau of Statistics, verified 27 Sep 2026) (10% band). The reading at the top uses the price direction and sales count of houses, or of units where houses have no comparable figure.
Sources: Victorian Property Sales Report (data.vic), Rental Report (data.vic), ABS Building Approvals (all CC BY 4.0).
| Median house price (Mar qtr 2026) | $1,755,000 |
|---|---|
| Stamp duty | $96,525 |
| Land Use Victoria transfer and mortgage fees | $3,743.50 |
| Government costs on top of the price | $100,268.50 |
Work out your own figure in the stamp duty calculator →
Price outlook: what the Narre Warren North median could be in 3 and 5 years
Start from the 2025 calendar-year median house price here, $1,560,000. For suburbs like Narre Warren North, three-year outcomes since 2016 put the 2028 median between $1,643,719 and $2,441,097 in about 76% of cases (the range was aimed at 80%; that is how often it held on years it had not seen), with $2,004,094 in the middle. The chance the median is lower than today in three years is about 6%: a low chance, not a remote one. A large part of that spread is the market rather than the suburb: 35% of the variation in three-year outcomes across Victorian suburbs is explained by the year the clock started.
| Horizon | Range (aimed at 80%) | Middle | Chance it is lower | Range held on unseen years |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| In 3 years (2028) | $1,643,719 to $2,441,097 | $2,004,094 (+28%) | 6% | 76% of 7 years |
| In 5 years (2030) | $1,750,020 to $2,514,448 | $2,047,340 (+31%) | 2% | 74% of 5 years |
How to use this
- If you might need to sell within three years, the bottom of the range and the chance of a lower median are the figures that matter most, with selling costs on top.
- The range is for the suburb's median, not for one home. A home bought above the median, or one with a problem the address report turns up, can do worse than the suburb.
- A wide range is the honest answer. A single-number forecast for a suburb hides this spread; treat one as a middle value with a range like this around it.
How the price outlook is worked out
The model starts from the Valuer-General's calendar-year median house price for every Victorian suburb with one (Valuer-General Victoria / Land Use Victoria, verified 29 Jul 2026), from 2016 onward. For each year and suburb it asks what happened to the median three and five years later, and relates that to what was knowable at the time: the suburb's one- and three-year price momentum, its price level against the state, a fair-value gap (the residual of a within-year regression of price on slow suburb characteristics: socio-economic index, distance to the CBD and the coast, income, education and commuting), gross rental yield where the Rental Report covers the suburb, and the socio-economic index and distance to the CBD themselves. Quantile regression estimates the 10th, 25th, 50th, 75th and 90th percentiles directly.
Every year is then held out in turn: the model is refitted without that year's outcomes and its ranges are checked against them. The published range is the model's middle plus the 10th and 90th percentiles of those held-out errors, so the range was tuned to contain 80% of past outcomes (conformal calibration); the "range held" figure is measured on years the calibration never saw. "Chance it is lower" is the share of held-out errors that would leave the median below the starting price. Across 773 suburbs and 7 starting years (2016 to 2022), the 80% range held 76% of the time and the 50% range 45%. The three-year range held 76%, short of the 80% it was aimed at, so read it as somewhat too narrow: the real chance of an outcome outside it is closer to 24% than 20%. The five-year range held 74%, short of the 80% it was aimed at, so read it as somewhat too narrow: the real chance of an outcome outside it is closer to 26% than 20%.
| Bought, then sold | Suburbs | Inside the range aimed at 80% | Inside the range aimed at 50% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 to 2019 | 745 | 80% | 57% |
| 2017 to 2020 | 766 | 89% | 71% |
| 2018 to 2021 | 782 | 80% | 47% |
| 2019 to 2022 | 786 | 61% | 29% |
| 2020 to 2023 | 786 | 84% | 62% |
| 2021 to 2024 | 777 | 93% | 37% |
| 2022 to 2025 | 771 | 45% | 11% |
Limits. A short run of yearly medians gives only 7 starting years, so the market effect is estimated from that many draws and the ranges are wide. Suburb characteristics other than momentum and yield are held at today's values for past years. A median from few sales is noisy, and VGV's thin-market medians are left out. The model is calibrated on 2016-2025; a market without precedent in that period can fall outside every range. It never values an individual home.
Model outlook-qr-v1, run 2026-10-27. Source: Victorian Property Sales Report, time series (data.vic), CC BY 4.0. The code is analysis/price_outlook.py in Delora's repository.
General information, not financial advice. It describes how suburb medians have behaved, not what any home will sell for.
How Narre Warren North compares
Where Narre Warren North ranks against other Greater Melbourne suburbs Delora covers, on the measures buyers ask about — a higher bar isn’t always “better”, it’s just where this suburb sits.
- Vacant land
- $885,000
- median land sale
Show recorded crime and amenity-density comparisons
New development pipeline: ~19 new dwellings · 1 major project · 0% apartments
Major residential redevelopment tracked by the Victorian Government (UDP 2025) — infill and apartment/townhouse sites, not greenfield house-and-land estates.
Modelled price context: the median is 43% above the model's estimate
current median
modelled fundamentals estimate, from Narre Warren North's own fundamentals
Even on the more cautious end of the model's uncertainty range, Narre Warren North still models at least 37% above its estimated fundamentals.
This is a suburb-level estimate, not a valuation of any property and not a prediction. See the methodology below.
Suburbs with the largest modelled gap → What drives this price? → Why do estimates never agree? → Checking a specific listing's price →
See what's driving that number (methodology)
This model compares Narre Warren North with a typical Greater Melbourne suburb on the things buyers actually care about — location, transport, schools, incomes and risk — then estimates a dollar figure for the difference. These are the factors contributing most to the estimate above. The model carries genuine uncertainty (see the range noted above) and describes the suburb, not any specific property in it.
Which school zones cover Narre Warren North?
Parts of Narre Warren North fall within 8 primary and 5 secondary government school catchments. 5 schools are located within the suburb (1 government, 1 Catholic, 3 independent).
Government schools have address-based catchment zones; Catholic and independent schools set their own enrolment processes.
Show all 2 zoned schools
Southern Cross Primary School zone map →Thomas Mitchell Primary School zone map →| Zone | Covers | Boundary | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Primary school zones | |||
| Narre Warren North Primary School | 39% | — | |
| Thomas Mitchell Primary School | 19% | — | |
| Oatlands Primary School | 15% | — | |
| Maramba Primary School | 12% | — | |
| Harkaway Primary School | 4% | — | |
| Secondary school zones | |||
| Fountain Gate Secondary College | 74% | — | |
| Timbarra P-9 College | 26% | — | |
| Gleneagles Secondary College | 23% | — | |
| Hallam Secondary College | 3% | — | |
How well connected is Narre Warren North?
0 train, 0 tram and 22 bus stop points sit inside the suburb (PTV timetable data).
- Distance to the CBD
- ~36 km
- from the suburb centre
- Getting around
- 0 train · 0 tram · 22 bus
- nearest train station ~5.1 km · counts are stop points, not stations (a station is often several)
- Train frequency
- every 17 min
- at the nearest station, weekday AM peak
- Tram frequency
- every 11 min
- at the nearest stop, weekday AM peak
- Schools
- 6
- primary & secondary
- Nearest Centrelink
- ~4.6 km
- outside the suburb
| Job hub | Minutes |
|---|---|
| Dandenong | 47 min |
| Clayton (Monash University) | 76 min |
| Mulgrave | 76 min |
| South Yarra | 96 min |
| Cremorne | 106 min |
| Docklands | 106 min |
Show all 9 job hubs
| Job hub | Minutes |
|---|---|
| Melbourne CBD | 106 min |
| Parkville | 106 min |
| Southbank | 106 min |
Everyday amenity (OpenStreetMap)
- Cafés & amenity density
- 2 cafés
- Low café & amenity density — likely more car-dependent
- Restaurants
- 1
- places to eat nearby
- Supermarkets
- 1
- grocery stores nearby
- Pharmacies
- 0
- chemists nearby
- Parks
- 18
- green space nearby
- Childcare
- 1
- centres nearby
- GP & medical centres
- 0
- nearby
Who lives in Narre Warren North?
— 8,033 residents · median age 42 · 93% own their home · SEIFA 9/10
- Population
- 8,033
- usual residents (Census 2021)
- Owner-occupied
- 93%
- 93% own, 2% private rent, 0% social, 5% other or not stated
- Median age
- 42 yrs
- of residents
- Personal income
- $795/wk
- median, per week
- Household income
- $2,634/wk
- median, per week
- Avg household size
- 3.4 people
- people per home · 91% family households
- Monthly mortgage
- $2,212/mo
- median repayment
- Taxpayer income
- $56,961/yr
- median taxable income, per year (ATO)
- Population growth
- no data
- Recorded crime
- 89 per 1,000 residents
- a year, across all of Casey council, not just Narre Warren North · around the state average
In Narre Warren North itself: 360 recorded offences in the year to 2026 (Crime Statistics Agency, matched by suburb name and postcode — a closer figure than the council-wide band above, though still a count, not a rate per resident).
Offence category mix (Casey council's mix, latest year):
- Property and deception offences57%
- Crimes against the person19%
- Justice procedures offences16%
- Drug offences4%
- Public order and security offences4%
- Other offences0%
Recorded offences by year, Narre Warren North (up 8% since 2019):
| Year | Offences |
|---|---|
| 2019 | 333 |
| 2020 | 324 |
| 2021 | 326 |
| 2022 | 347 |
| 2023 | 250 |
| 2024 | 360 |
| 2025 | 357 |
| 2026 | 360 |
- Median household incomeup 21%
- Median personal incomeup 18%
- Median weekly rentup 14%
- Median ageolder by 1 year
How advantaged the area is
Deciles 1–10 vs all Victorian areas — 10 = most advantaged — from the ABS SEIFA index. A demographic measure, not a house-price one. These three don’t always move together — a suburb with lots of renters or students, for example, can score high on education but lower on income and housing costs.
- Overall advantage
- 9/10
- Among Victoria's most advantaged areas
- Economic resources
- 10/10
- income, housing costs & wealth
- Education & occupation
- 7/10
- qualifications & skilled jobs
The homes here
Mix of dwelling types across the suburb (Census 2021)
Who owns and rents here (Census 2021)
More detail on building height and bedroom mix (Census 2021)
Bedroom mix (share of all occupied dwellings):
- Studio or 1 bedroom: 1%
- 2 bedrooms: 2%
- 3 bedrooms: 16%
- 4 or more bedrooms: 80%
Not sure whether a house, townhouse or apartment suits you? Decide what to buy →
Recorded crime is a council-wide rate — every offence police logged over the latest year (theft, property damage, drug and traffic offences and the like, not only violent crime) divided by the council’s residents. A broad area signal, not a figure for this exact street.
All figures are suburb-level indicators, not property-specific — always confirm the exact address on the Section 32. Sources: ABS Census 2021, Valuer-General Victoria, DFFH Rental Report, Crime Statistics Agency Victoria, Vicmap Planning, Victorian Government UDP, Victorian Department of Education (schools & zones, via data.vic, CC BY 4.0), OpenStreetMap.
Suburbs near Narre Warren North
The 6 closest suburbs with a Delora page, by distance between suburb centres.
Compare with nearby suburbs
What should I check before buying in Narre Warren North?
Overlay and pipeline checks specific to Narre Warren North are in the Planning and risk tab. Two checks apply to every purchase.
Easements & covenants
Check Section 3 for easements (e.g. drainage/sewer along a boundary — you usually can’t build over them) and restrictive covenants (single-dwelling, materials, height) that limit your plans.
Owners corporation (if applicable)
Apartments and many townhouses in Narre Warren North are in an owners corporation. If so, the statement must include its certificate — review annual fees, any special levies, the maintenance fund and insurance.
Already under contract in Narre Warren North?
Questions about Narre Warren North
What is the median house price in Narre Warren North?
The median house price in Narre Warren North was $1,755,000 in the Jan–Mar 2026 quarter (Valuer-General Victoria).
What postcode is Narre Warren North?
Narre Warren North is in postcode 3804, in the Casey council area, Victoria.
What is the population of Narre Warren North?
Narre Warren North had 8,033 usual residents at the 2021 Census (ABS), with a median age of 42.
Is Narre Warren North in a flood zone?
About 7% of Narre Warren North's land is under a flood-related planning overlay (LSIO, SBO or floodway), and about 6% is under the Bushfire Management Overlay (Vicmap Planning). These are suburb-wide shares: whether an overlay applies to one property depends on the address, so check it on VicPlan and in the Section 32.
What should I check in a Section 32 for Narre Warren North?
For Narre Warren North, pay particular attention to heritage overlays (about 1% of the suburb is affected), any flood-related overlay (about 7% of the land), easements and restrictive covenants on the title, and — for apartments — the owners-corporation certificate with its fees and any special levies.
Show all 3 more questions
Does Narre Warren North have heritage overlays?
Heritage overlays cover a small share of Narre Warren North (about 1%) — not common, but still worth a quick check: confirm in the Section 32's planning section whether a Heritage Overlay applies to this specific parcel, since it restricts demolition and external changes.
How is Narre Warren North zoned?
Most of Narre Warren North (41% of the land) is in the GWAZ (GWAZ4), then LDRZ1 (23%) and GRZ1 (11%) (Vicmap Planning). The zone and its schedule set what can be built; check the exact zone for an address on VicPlan.
Which school zones cover Narre Warren North?
Parts of Narre Warren North are in the government school zones for primary: Fountain Gate Primary School, Harkaway Primary School, Maramba Primary School, Mossgiel Park Primary School and 4 more; secondary: Berwick Secondary College, Fountain Gate Secondary College, Gleneagles Secondary College, Hallam Secondary College and 1 more (Victorian Department of Education school zones). A suburb can span several zones: the exact address decides which applies, so confirm it at findmyschool.vic.gov.au.
Guides for buying in Narre Warren North
The heritage, flood and bushfire figures in Planning and risk are suburb-wide — they tell you how common an overlay is here, not whether it applies to one specific address. Confirm via VicPlan and an in-person inspection before you rely on them.
Thinking of buying in Narre Warren North?
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