Cairnlea, Brimbank: house prices, rent and what to check before you buy
Cairnlea median house price: $954,300 in the Jan–Mar 2026 quarter, from 26 sales (Valuer-General Victoria), up 6.4% on the Jan–Mar 2025 quarter. Median unit price: $405,000 (calendar year 2025). Median rent: $400 a week (ABS Census 2021, older than the price figures). Postcode 3023.
What stands out: Part of Cairnlea is under an Environmental Audit Overlay (potentially contaminated land) (Vicmap Planning); its unit median is higher than 3% of the 319 Greater Melbourne suburbs with a reliable unit median (Valuer-General Victoria).
Page updated · market data to Mar 2026
- Zoning: mostly Neighbourhood Residential zone (NRZ1), 48% of the land
- Planning change: a new overlay since 2017, latest in 2026 (details)
- School zones: parts of Cairnlea are zoned for Albanvale Primary School and Ardeer Primary School (+5 more) (primary); St Albans Secondary College and Victoria University Secondary College (secondary)
- Getting there: 54 min to Melbourne CBD by public transport (modelled)
- House median
- $954,300
- Mar qtr 2026 · up 6.4% on Mar qtr 2025
- Higher than 42% of the 423 Greater Melbourne suburbs with a reliable house median · 26 sales in the quarter
- Valuer-General Victoria
- Unit median
- $405,000
- calendar year 2025 · down 2.1% on calendar year 2024
- Higher than 3% of the 319 Greater Melbourne suburbs with a reliable unit median · 23 sales in the year
- Valuer-General Victoria
- Median rent
- $400/wk
- Census 2021 (older)
- Census 2021 median, all rented homes
- Four years older than the price figures; not directly comparable.
- ABS Census 2021
- Gross yield
- 2.2%
- 2021 rent / Mar qtr 2026 price
- Indicative only.
- Calculated by Delora from the two figures above
- Planning risk
- Flood 6% LowBushfire 0% Very lowHeritage 0% Very low
- share of suburb land area
- 2 suburb-specific overlays to check
- Vicmap Planning
- Getting around
- 1.9 km to nearest station
- 54 min to Melbourne CBD by public transport (modelled)
- 7 zoned primary, 2 secondary schools
- PTV timetable data · Delora commute model · Victorian Department of Education school zones
Cairnlea is a suburb with a fairly mixed age profile — median age 36, less socio-economically advantaged than most areas on the ABS's SEIFA index. Housing here is overwhelmingly standalone houses. The area is still light on cafés, shops and other everyday amenity. It's not served by train or tram.
Ready to look at a specific property here? See the due diligence hub for what to verify before you sign.
Scope: Victoria, Australia. Suburb data here is Victorian (state valuer, rental, planning and school records); Greater Melbourne comparison group.
In this profile
- Planning and riskZones, overlays, flood and bushfire, and what is planned nearby, with an address check.
- Prices and rentsMedian prices and rents, how they have moved, and sales volume.
- SchoolsThe government school zones that cover the suburb.
- Living hereTransport, commute times, who lives here and the suburbs nearby.
- Before you buyThe checks every purchase needs, common questions and guides.
Risk and planning in Cairnlea
Cairnlea has relatively light heritage-overlay coverage (about 0%), though it can still apply to individual parcels. Parts of the suburb (about 6%) sit under flood-related overlays.
Suburb-wide shares of the land, not a check of any one address.
Flood-related overlays can add building rules and raise insurance cost.
Share of the suburb. Source: Vicmap Planning · Verify this address
If it applies it adds bushfire construction requirements (a BAL rating) and cost.
Share of the suburb. Source: Vicmap Planning · Verify this address
No part of Cairnlea is in a designated bushfire prone area. That is the building system’s map, not proof that bushfire can’t reach the suburb.
Share of the suburb. Source: Designated Bushfire Prone Area (DataVic) · Verify this address
Changes to the outside of a building, and demolition, need council approval. 1 named overlay area (HO6) — oldest gazetted 2003.
Share of the suburb. Source: Vicmap Planning · Verify this address
On summer mornings in 2017–18 the ground surface across Cairnlea averaged 11.6 °C above the non-urban baseline, hotter than 98% of metropolitan Melbourne suburbs. (Clean Air and Urban Landscapes Hub, for the Victorian Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning, verified 23 Oct 2026) Tree cover was 6.1%, less tree cover than 87% of these suburbs.
It measures the surface, not the air temperature, and is a guide to exposure, not a forecast. (Clean Air and Urban Landscapes Hub, for the Victorian Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning, verified 23 Oct 2026) Streets vary: Address Check shows the figure for an address.
Averaged over the suburb’s mesh blocks. Source: Urban Heat Islands and Urban Vegetation 2018 (DataVic)
Worth checking in Cairnlea
Potentially contaminated land (EAO)
An Environmental Audit Overlay applies to part of Cairnlea — usually former industrial or commercial land. A satisfactory environmental audit can be required before it’s used for a home; confirm whether the property sits within it.
Check for a flood overlay
Parts of Cairnlea (~6%) sit under flood-related overlays. Confirm whether this address is affected.
Zoning mix and building controls
Land use across the suburb (planning zones)
- Zoning
- Residential
- mostly Neighbourhood Residential Zone – Schedule 1 (NRZ1) · 48% of the suburb
Planning overlays that can affect building, renovating or removing vegetation somewhere in Cairnlea — confirm whether any apply to the specific address.
- Significant Landscape Overlay — controls to protect the area’s landscape character
- Environmental Significance Overlay — environmental values that constrain development
- Development-contributions levy — new development pays an infrastructure contribution
Planning changes in Cairnlea: 1 recorded since 2017
Planning controls on land in Cairnlea have changed since 2017. Each row below is one gazetted amendment — a batch of parcels changed together in the same notice, not a single lot — the kind of thing that moves land value and that portals don’t show.
Source: Vicmap Planning Scheme History (2017–present); parcel-level zone & overlay changes grouped by suburb, zone transition and gazettal batch. A suburb-level record — confirm the specific parcel. See how Melbourne’s zoning changed over the decade →
- Suburb
- Heritage
- Flood
Layers on this map, as a table
| Layer | Share of suburb | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Suburb boundary | The whole suburb | ABS SAL 2021 |
| Heritage overlay | 0% | Vicmap Planning |
| Flood overlay | 6% | Vicmap Planning |
Overlay colours reflect how much of the suburb an overlay covers — green under ~8%, amber ~8–20%, red above 20%. Public-acquisition, contamination (EAO) and floodway overlays are listed above under "Worth checking" wherever they apply, because even a small area can include a specific property. Source: Vicmap Planning. What do these terms mean? · How to verify planning controls for an address
Cost and market in Cairnlea
Market pulse: is Cairnlea busier or quieter than a year ago?
VGV sales to Mar 2026 · ABS approvals to Aug 2026
| Measure | Change | What it's based on |
|---|---|---|
| House prices | Not measured | Fewer than 20 sales in the Jan–Mar 2026 quarter or the same quarter a year earlier: too few to compare. |
| Houses sold | +66.7% · more | 100 houses sold in the four quarters to Mar 2026, against 60 in the four quarters before. |
| Unit prices | Not measured | The Valuer-General flags the median for the Jan–Mar 2026 quarter or the same quarter a year earlier as based on too few sales to compare. |
| New homes approved (council) | +14.4% · more | 682 dwellings approved across the council Sep 2025 to Aug 2026, against 596 in the 12 months before. |
What sales volume tells you → Reading rental demand →
Over 5 years the calendar-year median house price went from $807,500 (2020) to $922,000 (2025), +14.2% or about +2.7% a year.
Checking an asking price in Cairnlea
A suburb median is the middle sale, not the value of any one home.
- Ask the agent for the Property Price Statement (a listing from before the change may still carry a Statement of Information (Consumer Affairs Victoria, verified 27 Sep 2026)). It gives an indicative price and the three most comparable sales (Consumer Affairs Victoria, verified 30 Jul 2026), and since it replaced the Statement of Information in the 2026 underquoting reform it also lists the bedrooms, bathrooms, floor area and land size of each comparable home (Consumer Affairs Victoria, verified 27 Sep 2026).
- Check those sales really are comparable: a similar standard of home, sold within 2 km in the last 6 months in metropolitan Melbourne, or within 5 km in the last 18 months elsewhere (Consumer Affairs Victoria, verified 30 Jul 2026).
- An advertised price is a guide only, and a home selling above it isn't by itself proof of underquoting (Consumer Affairs Victoria, verified 30 Jul 2026).
What open data can't tell you
Auction clearance rates, days on market, the number of homes for sale and how far sellers drop their price are not published as open government data. They come from private listing and data companies under paid licences, so Delora doesn't show them. For a home you're looking at, ask the agent how long it has been listed, whether it was passed in at auction, and what its first price guide was.
How the market pulse is worked out
Prices compare the latest quarterly median with the same quarter a year earlier, using only quarters with at least 20 sales and no thin-market flag from the Valuer-General. A direction is called only when the quarter before agrees: both changes at least +3% is rising, both at most −3% is falling, both within 3% is about the same, anything else is mixed. Sales compare the latest four quarters with the four before (a change of 10% or more counts as more or fewer). Sales are counted when they settle (Valuer-General Victoria / Land Use Victoria, verified 29 Jul 2026), so these figures trail contracts signed in the last few months.
Rents are the Rental Report's moving-annual median for all homes, from new lettings only (Homes Victoria / Department of Families, Fairness and Housing, verified 29 Jul 2026), compared with the same quarter a year earlier (3% band); new leases use a 10% band. Dwelling approvals are the ABS count for the whole council, not this suburb; an approval is the permit to start building, not a finished home (Australian Bureau of Statistics, verified 27 Sep 2026) (10% band). The reading at the top uses the price direction and sales count of houses, or of units where houses have no comparable figure.
Sources: Victorian Property Sales Report (data.vic), Rental Report (data.vic), ABS Building Approvals (all CC BY 4.0).
| Median house price (Mar qtr 2026) | $954,300 |
|---|---|
| Stamp duty | $52,328 |
| Land Use Victoria transfer and mortgage fees | $2,466.20 |
| Government costs on top of the price | $54,794.20 |
Work out your own figure in the stamp duty calculator →
Price outlook: what the Cairnlea median could be in 3 and 5 years
Start from the 2025 calendar-year median house price here, $922,000. For suburbs like Cairnlea, three-year outcomes since 2016 put the 2028 median between $915,666 and $1,359,861 in about 76% of cases (the range was aimed at 80%; that is how often it held on years it had not seen), with $1,116,420 in the middle. The chance the median is lower than today in three years is about 11%: a low chance, not a remote one. A large part of that spread is the market rather than the suburb: 35% of the variation in three-year outcomes across Victorian suburbs is explained by the year the clock started.
| Horizon | Range (aimed at 80%) | Middle | Chance it is lower | Range held on unseen years |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| In 3 years (2028) | $915,666 to $1,359,861 | $1,116,420 (+21%) | 11% | 76% of 7 years |
| In 5 years (2030) | $995,958 to $1,431,003 | $1,165,166 (+26%) | 4% | 74% of 5 years |
How to use this
- If you might need to sell within three years, the bottom of the range and the chance of a lower median are the figures that matter most, with selling costs on top.
- The range is for the suburb's median, not for one home. A home bought above the median, or one with a problem the address report turns up, can do worse than the suburb.
- A wide range is the honest answer. A single-number forecast for a suburb hides this spread; treat one as a middle value with a range like this around it.
How the price outlook is worked out
The model starts from the Valuer-General's calendar-year median house price for every Victorian suburb with one (Valuer-General Victoria / Land Use Victoria, verified 29 Jul 2026), from 2016 onward. For each year and suburb it asks what happened to the median three and five years later, and relates that to what was knowable at the time: the suburb's one- and three-year price momentum, its price level against the state, a fair-value gap (the residual of a within-year regression of price on slow suburb characteristics: socio-economic index, distance to the CBD and the coast, income, education and commuting), gross rental yield where the Rental Report covers the suburb, and the socio-economic index and distance to the CBD themselves. Quantile regression estimates the 10th, 25th, 50th, 75th and 90th percentiles directly.
Every year is then held out in turn: the model is refitted without that year's outcomes and its ranges are checked against them. The published range is the model's middle plus the 10th and 90th percentiles of those held-out errors, so the range was tuned to contain 80% of past outcomes (conformal calibration); the "range held" figure is measured on years the calibration never saw. "Chance it is lower" is the share of held-out errors that would leave the median below the starting price. Across 773 suburbs and 7 starting years (2016 to 2022), the 80% range held 76% of the time and the 50% range 45%. The three-year range held 76%, short of the 80% it was aimed at, so read it as somewhat too narrow: the real chance of an outcome outside it is closer to 24% than 20%. The five-year range held 74%, short of the 80% it was aimed at, so read it as somewhat too narrow: the real chance of an outcome outside it is closer to 26% than 20%.
| Bought, then sold | Suburbs | Inside the range aimed at 80% | Inside the range aimed at 50% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 to 2019 | 745 | 80% | 57% |
| 2017 to 2020 | 766 | 89% | 71% |
| 2018 to 2021 | 782 | 80% | 47% |
| 2019 to 2022 | 786 | 61% | 29% |
| 2020 to 2023 | 786 | 84% | 62% |
| 2021 to 2024 | 777 | 93% | 37% |
| 2022 to 2025 | 771 | 45% | 11% |
Limits. A short run of yearly medians gives only 7 starting years, so the market effect is estimated from that many draws and the ranges are wide. Suburb characteristics other than momentum and yield are held at today's values for past years. A median from few sales is noisy, and VGV's thin-market medians are left out. The model is calibrated on 2016-2025; a market without precedent in that period can fall outside every range. It never values an individual home.
Model outlook-qr-v1, run 2026-10-27. Source: Victorian Property Sales Report, time series (data.vic), CC BY 4.0. The code is analysis/price_outlook.py in Delora's repository.
General information, not financial advice. It describes how suburb medians have behaved, not what any home will sell for.
How Cairnlea compares
Where Cairnlea ranks against other Greater Melbourne suburbs Delora covers, on the measures buyers ask about — a higher bar isn’t always “better”, it’s just where this suburb sits.
- Vacant land
- $600,500
- median land sale
Show recorded crime and amenity-density comparisons
New development pipeline: ~70 new dwellings · 1 major project · 0% apartments
Major residential redevelopment tracked by the Victorian Government (UDP 2025) — infill and apartment/townhouse sites, not greenfield house-and-land estates.
Modelled price context: the median is 8% above the model's estimate
current median
modelled fundamentals estimate, from Cairnlea's own fundamentals
Even on the more cautious end of the model's uncertainty range, Cairnlea still models at least 2% above its estimated fundamentals.
This is a suburb-level estimate, not a valuation of any property and not a prediction. See the methodology below.
Suburbs with the largest modelled gap → What drives this price? → Why do estimates never agree? → Checking a specific listing's price →
See what's driving that number (methodology)
This model compares Cairnlea with a typical Greater Melbourne suburb on the things buyers actually care about — location, transport, schools, incomes and risk — then estimates a dollar figure for the difference. These are the factors contributing most to the estimate above. The model carries genuine uncertainty (see the range noted above) and describes the suburb, not any specific property in it.
Schools
Parts of Cairnlea fall within 7 primary and 2 secondary government school catchments. 2 schools are located within the suburb (2 government).
Government schools have address-based catchment zones; Catholic and independent schools set their own enrolment processes.
Show all 1 zoned schools
University Park Primary School zone map →| Zone | Covers | Boundary | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Primary school zones | |||
| Cairnlea Park Primary School | 74% | — | |
| Deer Park North Primary School | 18% | — | |
| Albanvale Primary School | 6% | — | |
| University Park Primary School | 2% | — | |
| Secondary school zones | |||
| Victoria University Secondary College (Cairnlea Campus) | 73% | — | |
| Victoria University Secondary College (Deer Park Campus) | 73% | — | |
| St Albans Secondary College | 27% | — | |
Getting around from Cairnlea
0 train, 0 tram and 15 bus stop points sit inside the suburb (PTV timetable data).
- Distance to the CBD
- ~17 km
- from the suburb centre
- Getting around
- 0 train · 0 tram · 15 bus
- nearest train station ~1.9 km · counts are stop points, not stations (a station is often several)
- Train frequency
- every 6 min
- at the nearest station, weekday AM peak
- Tram frequency
- every 4 min
- at the nearest stop, weekday AM peak
- Schools
- 2
- primary & secondary
- Nearest Centrelink
- ~6.8 km
- outside the suburb
| Job hub | Minutes |
|---|---|
| Docklands | 54 min |
| Melbourne CBD | 54 min |
| Parkville | 54 min |
| Cremorne | 64 min |
| East Melbourne | 64 min |
| South Melbourne | 64 min |
Show all 15 job hubs
| Job hub | Minutes |
|---|---|
| South Yarra | 64 min |
| Southbank | 64 min |
| Laverton | 84 min |
| Port Melbourne Industrial | 84 min |
| Preston | 84 min |
| Geelong | 93 min |
| Campbellfield | 108 min |
| Clayton (Monash University) | 108 min |
| Dandenong | 108 min |
Everyday amenity (OpenStreetMap)
- Cafés & amenity density
- 2 cafés
- Low café & amenity density — likely more car-dependent
- Restaurants
- 7
- places to eat nearby
- Supermarkets
- 2
- grocery stores nearby
- Pharmacies
- 1
- chemists nearby
- Parks
- 23
- green space nearby
- Childcare
- 0
- centres nearby
- GP & medical centres
- 3
- nearby
Who lives in Cairnlea
— 10,038 residents · median age 36 · 82% own their home · SEIFA 2/10
- Population
- 10,038
- usual residents (Census 2021)
- Owner-occupied
- 82%
- 82% own, 10% private rent, 1% social, 7% other or not stated
- Median age
- 36 yrs
- of residents
- Personal income
- $658/wk
- median, per week
- Household income
- $2,062/wk
- median, per week
- Avg household size
- 3.4 people
- people per home · 87% family households
- Monthly mortgage
- $1,883/mo
- median repayment
- Taxpayer income
- $54,314/yr
- median taxable income, per year (ATO)
- Population growth
- no data
- Recorded crime
- 96 per 1,000 residents
- a year, across all of Brimbank council, not just Cairnlea · around the state average
In Cairnlea itself: 473 recorded offences in the year to 2026 (Crime Statistics Agency, matched by suburb name and postcode — a closer figure than the council-wide band above, though still a count, not a rate per resident).
Offence category mix (Brimbank council's mix, latest year):
- Property and deception offences60%
- Justice procedures offences16%
- Crimes against the person13%
- Drug offences6%
- Public order and security offences5%
- Other offences0%
Recorded offences by year, Cairnlea (down 21% since 2019):
| Year | Offences |
|---|---|
| 2019 | 602 |
| 2020 | 431 |
| 2021 | 490 |
| 2022 | 535 |
| 2023 | 589 |
| 2024 | 560 |
| 2025 | 430 |
| 2026 | 473 |
- Median household incomeup 18%
- Median personal incomeup 20%
- Median weekly rentup 8%
- Median ageolder by 3 years
How advantaged the area is
Deciles 1–10 vs all Victorian areas — 10 = most advantaged — from the ABS SEIFA index. A demographic measure, not a house-price one. These three don’t always move together — a suburb with lots of renters or students, for example, can score high on education but lower on income and housing costs.
- Overall advantage
- 2/10
- Less advantaged than most
- Economic resources
- 7/10
- income, housing costs & wealth
- Education & occupation
- 5/10
- qualifications & skilled jobs
The homes here
Mix of dwelling types across the suburb (Census 2021)
Who owns and rents here (Census 2021)
More detail on building height and bedroom mix (Census 2021)
Apartment building height (share of all dwellings in the suburb, not just apartments):
- Mid-rise (3–8 storeys): 4%
Bedroom mix (share of all occupied dwellings):
- Studio or 1 bedroom: 2%
- 2 bedrooms: 3%
- 3 bedrooms: 30%
- 4 or more bedrooms: 64%
Not sure whether a house, townhouse or apartment suits you? Decide what to buy →
Recorded crime is a council-wide rate — every offence police logged over the latest year (theft, property damage, drug and traffic offences and the like, not only violent crime) divided by the council’s residents. A broad area signal, not a figure for this exact street.
All figures are suburb-level indicators, not property-specific — always confirm the exact address on the Section 32. Sources: ABS Census 2021, Valuer-General Victoria, DFFH Rental Report, Crime Statistics Agency Victoria, Vicmap Planning, Victorian Government UDP, Victorian Department of Education (schools & zones, via data.vic, CC BY 4.0), OpenStreetMap.
Suburbs near Cairnlea
The 6 closest suburbs with a Delora page, by distance between suburb centres.
Compare with nearby suburbs
Before you buy in Cairnlea
Overlay and pipeline checks specific to Cairnlea are in the Planning and risk tab. Two checks apply to every purchase.
Easements & covenants
Check Section 3 for easements (e.g. drainage/sewer along a boundary — you usually can’t build over them) and restrictive covenants (single-dwelling, materials, height) that limit your plans.
Owners corporation (if applicable)
Apartments and many townhouses in Cairnlea are in an owners corporation. If so, the statement must include its certificate — review annual fees, any special levies, the maintenance fund and insurance.
Already under contract in Cairnlea?
Questions about Cairnlea
What is the median house price in Cairnlea?
The median house price in Cairnlea was $954,300 in the Jan–Mar 2026 quarter (Valuer-General Victoria), up 6.4% on a year earlier. The median unit price was $405,000 (calendar year 2025).
What postcode is Cairnlea?
Cairnlea is in postcode 3023, in the Brimbank council area, Victoria.
What is the population of Cairnlea?
Cairnlea had 10,038 usual residents at the 2021 Census (ABS), with a median age of 36.
Is Cairnlea in a flood zone?
About 6% of Cairnlea's land is under a flood-related planning overlay (LSIO, SBO or floodway), and less than 1% is under the Bushfire Management Overlay (Vicmap Planning). These are suburb-wide shares: whether an overlay applies to one property depends on the address, so check it on VicPlan and in the Section 32.
What should I check in a Section 32 for Cairnlea?
For Cairnlea, pay particular attention to any heritage overlay (none mapped at suburb level — check the specific parcel), any flood-related overlay (about 6% of the land), easements and restrictive covenants on the title, and — for apartments — the owners-corporation certificate with its fees and any special levies.
Show all 3 more questions
Does Cairnlea have heritage overlays?
No heritage overlay coverage was mapped for Cairnlea at the suburb level. That doesn't rule out an individually heritage-listed property or a Heritage Overlay on a specific parcel — check the planning section of the Section 32 for this address.
How is Cairnlea zoned?
Most of Cairnlea (48% of the land) is in the Neighbourhood Residential (NRZ1), then PCRZ (15%) and GRZ1 (11%) (Vicmap Planning). The zone and its schedule set what can be built; check the exact zone for an address on VicPlan.
Which school zones cover Cairnlea?
Parts of Cairnlea are in the government school zones for primary: Albanvale Primary School, Ardeer Primary School, Cairnlea Park Primary School, Deer Park North Primary School and 3 more; secondary: St Albans Secondary College, Victoria University Secondary College (Victorian Department of Education school zones). A suburb can span several zones: the exact address decides which applies, so confirm it at findmyschool.vic.gov.au.
Guides for buying in Cairnlea
The heritage, flood and bushfire figures in Planning and risk are suburb-wide — they tell you how common an overlay is here, not whether it applies to one specific address. Confirm via VicPlan and an in-person inspection before you rely on them.
Thinking of buying in Cairnlea?
Paste a listing or address into Delora in Claude. It checks each home against official records, works out the cost to buy, and remembers your shortlist between chats.
Free to start. Sign in with Google, Apple or an email code. How your data is handled.