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Surf Coast housing target: 2051 target vs approvals

Surf Coast’s official 2051 housing target, the yearly pace it implies, and how ABS building approvals in the council compare, month by month.

Surf Coast’s final 2051 housing target is 8,000 additional homes (Victorian Government (Department of Transport and Planning), verified 27 Sep 2026). Spread evenly over the 28 years from 2023, that is about 286 homes a year.

In the 12 months to Jul 2026, the ABS recorded 311 dwelling approvals in Surf Coast: approvals are running at 109% of the pace needed. That is up 74% on the 12 months before.

Updated to Jul 2026 (ABS building approvals), data refreshed 2026-10-07. Targets as set in Plan for Victoria’s final targets, 24 February 2025.

8,000additional homes by 2051 (target)
286a year: the even pace the target implies
311dwellings approved in the 12 months to Jul 2026
109%of the pace needed, on the last 12 months

The state counts about 21,600 homes in Surf Coast in 2023 (Victorian Government (Department of Transport and Planning), verified 27 Sep 2026), so the target would add roughly 37% to the housing stock.

Region: Regional Victoria.

Monthly approvals in Surf Coast

Dwelling approvals in Surf Coast by monthMonthly dwelling units approved in Surf Coast, Jul 2018 to Jul 2026, split into houses and other dwellings, with the 12-month average and a dashed line at the 24 a month the 2051 target implies. The last 12 months total 311. The same figures are in the table that follows.025507510012520192020202120222023202420252026

Since January 2024, 605 dwellings have been approved in Surf Coast, about 234 a year, and the three-year average is 224 a year (78% of the pace needed). Extrapolation only: if approvals continued at the last 12 months' pace and every approval became a home (not all do), the remaining target would be reached in about 24 years, around 2050.

Of the last 12 months’ approvals, 91% were houses and 9% were other dwellings such as townhouses and apartments.

Dwelling units approved in Surf Coast, by financial year
Financial yearHousesOther dwellingsTotal
2018–19608119727
2019–2051352565
2020–2148365548
2021–2236771438
2022–2321856274
2023–2415522177
2024–2517013183
2025–2625327280
2026–27 (Jul–Jul, 1 months)43043
Last 24 months, month by month
MonthHousesOther dwellingsTotal
Jul 202643043
Jun 202626026
May 202619019
Apr 202628735
Mar 202614418
Feb 202643649
Jan 202624024
Dec 202515520
Nov 202520323
Oct 202516016
Sep 202513013
Aug 202523225
Jul 202512012
Jun 202513013
May 202519019
Apr 2025909
Mar 202510212
Feb 202514014
Jan 2025909
Dec 202411011
Nov 202417017
Oct 202418018
Sep 202421021
Aug 202416824

Similar councils

Councils in Regional Victoria with the closest target sizes.

Council2051 targetNeeded a yearApproved, last 12 monthsShare of pace needed
Mildura8,500304447147%
South Gippsland8,00028616257%
Wellington8,00028620973%
Surf Coast8,000286311109%
Warrnambool7,200257394153%

Where in Surf Coast the approvals are

Suburbs with the most dwelling approvals since July 2021, when the ABS small-area series starts. Suburb figures are apportioned from ABS SA2 areas, so treat them as indicative.

SuburbDwellings approved since Jul 2021
Bellbrae306
Torquay211
Winchelsea87
Lorne54
Anglesea53
Jan Juc31
Gnarwarre17
Deans Marsh11

What the target means

The target is the number of additional homes the Victorian Government expects Surf Coast to make room for by 2051 (Victorian Government (Department of Transport and Planning), verified 27 Sep 2026). Councils do that through their planning controls (Victorian Government (Department of Transport and Planning), verified 27 Sep 2026), and the state says it will intervene, including by rezoning, where councils don’t (Premier of Victoria, verified 27 Sep 2026). The targets were set using access to jobs, services and transport, hazards such as flood and bushfire, and development trends (Victorian Government (Department of Transport and Planning), verified 27 Sep 2026).

Method and limits.

Frequently asked

What is Surf Coast's housing target?

Surf Coast's final housing target, set by the Victorian Government in February 2025, is 8,000 additional homes by 2051.

How many homes are being approved in Surf Coast?

In the 12 months to Jul 2026, the ABS recorded 311 dwelling approvals in Surf Coast. The even pace the target implies is about 286 a year, so approvals are running at 109% of the pace needed.

Does Surf Coast have to approve 286 homes every year?

No. The target is a long-run total to 2051, not a yearly quota, and councils meet it by providing capacity in their planning controls. The even yearly pace is a yardstick for comparison, not a legal requirement.

Are building approvals the same as new homes?

No. An approval is the permit that lets construction start. Some approved homes are built years later, some never are, and demolished homes aren't subtracted.

Suburbs in Surf Coast

Surf Coast council overview: median prices for every suburb →

Sources and methodology

Figures on this page are drawn from Delora's local knowledge graph, refreshed from these primary sources and checked for changes on a regular schedule. If a figure here looks out of date, the official source above is always the authority — please let us know.

← All councils’ targets Rezoning tracker → Planning and development guide →
Written by
Delora editorial team
Jurisdiction
Victoria only (Victorian Government targets)
Content type
Data tracker (general information, not advice)
Last reviewed
2026-10-07
Sources
See "Sources and methodology" above for cited sources

Sources on this page last verified against the primary source each figure cites. What “verified” means