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Cardinia housing target: 2051 target vs approvals

Cardinia’s official 2051 housing target, the yearly pace it implies, and how ABS building approvals in the council compare, month by month.

Cardinia’s final 2051 housing target is 30,000 additional homes (Victorian Government (Department of Transport and Planning), verified 27 Sep 2026). Spread evenly over the 28 years from 2023, that is about 1,071 homes a year.

In the 12 months to Jul 2026, the ABS recorded 1,323 dwelling approvals in Cardinia: approvals are running at 123% of the pace needed. That is up 4% on the 12 months before.

Updated to Jul 2026 (ABS building approvals), data refreshed 2026-10-07. Targets as set in Plan for Victoria’s final targets, 24 February 2025.

30,000additional homes by 2051 (target)
1,071a year: the even pace the target implies
1,323dwellings approved in the 12 months to Jul 2026
123%of the pace needed, on the last 12 months

The target is split into 9,000 outside greenfield areas (Victorian Government (Department of Transport and Planning), verified 27 Sep 2026) and 21,000 in greenfield areas (Victorian Government (Department of Transport and Planning), verified 27 Sep 2026). The state counts about 46,400 homes in Cardinia in 2023 (Victorian Government (Department of Transport and Planning), verified 27 Sep 2026), so the target would add roughly 65% to the housing stock.

Region: Metropolitan Melbourne.

Monthly approvals in Cardinia

Dwelling approvals in Cardinia by monthMonthly dwelling units approved in Cardinia, Jul 2018 to Jul 2026, split into houses and other dwellings, with the 12-month average and a dashed line at the 89 a month the 2051 target implies. The last 12 months total 1,323. The same figures are in the table that follows.010020030020192020202120222023202420252026

Since January 2024, 3,406 dwellings have been approved in Cardinia, about 1,318 a year, and the three-year average is 1,297 a year (121% of the pace needed). Extrapolation only: if approvals continued at the last 12 months' pace and every approval became a home (not all do), the remaining target would be reached in about 20 years, around 2046.

Of the last 12 months’ approvals, 89% were houses and 11% were other dwellings such as townhouses and apartments.

Dwelling units approved in Cardinia, by financial year
Financial yearHousesOther dwellingsTotal
2018–191,5334481,981
2019–209861111,097
2020–211,3021941,496
2021–221,3031101,413
2022–239401951,135
2023–249701221,092
2024–251,0973341,431
2025–261,1601361,296
2026–27 (Jul–Jul, 1 months)11319132
Last 24 months, month by month
MonthHousesOther dwellingsTotal
Jul 202611319132
Jun 20261366142
May 202662062
Apr 202610210112
Mar 2026731891
Feb 202610310113
Jan 202670070
Dec 20251464150
Nov 20258218100
Oct 202512314137
Sep 20258416100
Aug 20258133114
Jul 2025987105
Jun 202593093
May 20251056111
Apr 202592092
Mar 20258911100
Feb 20258724111
Jan 202588896
Dec 2024821092
Nov 202412244166
Oct 20249644140
Sep 202469069
Aug 2024841296

Similar councils

Councils in Metropolitan Melbourne with the closest target sizes.

Council2051 targetNeeded a yearApproved, last 12 monthsShare of pace needed
Frankston33,0001,17981569%
Bayside30,0001,07153049%
Cardinia30,0001,0711,323123%
Manningham28,5001,01848047%
Yarra Ranges25,00089342848%

Where in Cardinia the approvals are

Suburbs with the most dwelling approvals since July 2021, when the ABS small-area series starts. Suburb figures are apportioned from ABS SA2 areas, so treat them as indicative.

SuburbDwellings approved since Jul 2021
Pakenham2,327
Officer1,569
Beaconsfield773
Guys Hill259
Lang Lang193
Nar Nar Goon122
Koo Wee Rup120
Nar Nar Goon North104

What the target means

The target is the number of additional homes the Victorian Government expects Cardinia to make room for by 2051 (Victorian Government (Department of Transport and Planning), verified 27 Sep 2026). Councils do that through their planning controls (Victorian Government (Department of Transport and Planning), verified 27 Sep 2026), and the state says it will intervene, including by rezoning, where councils don’t (Premier of Victoria, verified 27 Sep 2026). The targets were set using access to jobs, services and transport, hazards such as flood and bushfire, and development trends (Victorian Government (Department of Transport and Planning), verified 27 Sep 2026).

Method and limits.

Frequently asked

What is Cardinia's housing target?

Cardinia's final housing target, set by the Victorian Government in February 2025, is 30,000 additional homes by 2051. 21,000 of them are in greenfield areas.

How many homes are being approved in Cardinia?

In the 12 months to Jul 2026, the ABS recorded 1,323 dwelling approvals in Cardinia. The even pace the target implies is about 1,071 a year, so approvals are running at 123% of the pace needed.

Does Cardinia have to approve 1,071 homes every year?

No. The target is a long-run total to 2051, not a yearly quota, and councils meet it by providing capacity in their planning controls. The even yearly pace is a yardstick for comparison, not a legal requirement.

Are building approvals the same as new homes?

No. An approval is the permit that lets construction start. Some approved homes are built years later, some never are, and demolished homes aren't subtracted.

Suburbs in Cardinia

Cardinia council overview: median prices for every suburb →

Sources and methodology

Figures on this page are drawn from Delora's local knowledge graph, refreshed from these primary sources and checked for changes on a regular schedule. If a figure here looks out of date, the official source above is always the authority — please let us know.

← All councils’ targets Rezoning tracker → Planning and development guide →
Written by
Delora editorial team
Jurisdiction
Victoria only (Victorian Government targets)
Content type
Data tracker (general information, not advice)
Last reviewed
2026-10-07
Sources
See "Sources and methodology" above for cited sources

Sources on this page last verified against the primary source each figure cites. What “verified” means